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Showing posts from September, 2026

IRAN, THE BAB AL-MANDEB AND THE MAKING OF A NEW MIDDLE EASTERN SUPERPOWER?

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Could Tehran’s growing influence over two of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints fundamentally change the balance of power in the Middle East? There are moments in international politics when a military development in one country suddenly becomes a problem for the entire world. The latest Houthi advance in Yemen may be one of those moments. The reported capture of key positions around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait , including Perim Island, has dramatically changed the strategic picture in the Red Sea. The Houthis have also captured Mokha and consolidated their position along Yemen's Red Sea coast. Because the Houthis are closely aligned with Iran, this development has immediately raised a much larger question: Is Iran gradually moving from being merely a powerful regional actor to becoming the dominant strategic power of the Middle East? The answer is not yet a simple "yes." But something much more important may be happening. Iran is accumulating...

THE DANGER OF ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS PROFILING. LESSONS FROM 1994 RWANDAN GENOCIDE

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What Nigeria Must Learn from the Rwandan Genocide of 1994 When Identity Becomes a Weapon History has repeatedly demonstrated that nations do not descend into catastrophic violence overnight. Before the machetes, there are words. Before the mass graves, there is propaganda. Before neighbours become enemies, there is usually a prolonged process of psychological separation—an intentional or politically exploited transformation of “us” and “them.” This is perhaps the most important lesson Nigeria must learn from Rwanda. Between April and July 1994, Rwanda experienced one of the most horrifying episodes of mass violence in modern African history. In approximately 100 days, between 800,000 and one million people were killed, overwhelmingly Tutsi civilians, alongside moderate Hutus who opposed or resisted the extremist campaign. The killings were not spontaneous. They were preceded by years of political manipulation, ethnic polarization, dehumanizing propaganda, militari...

BAUCHI SOUTH AT A CROSSROADS: ALLEGATIONS, SILENCE AND THE IMPERATIVE OF TRUTH

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This week, Bauchi State has once again been thrown into a vortex of political controversy, public anxiety and grave security concerns following a viral video interview involving a man identified as Hassan and the popular social-media personality known as De English Alhaji. The interview, which has travelled with astonishing velocity across social-media platforms, contains allegations of an exceptionally serious nature against the Distinguished Senator representing Bauchi South Senatorial District, Senator Shehu Buba Umar. Let us be unequivocally clear from the outset: an allegation is not a conviction, a viral video is not a judicial verdict, and public outrage is not a substitute for evidence. Yet, allegations of terrorism, banditry or complicity in violent criminality are far too consequential to be casually dismissed as ordinary political gossip. According to recent media reports, Hassan made several allegations during the recorded interview concerning Senator Shehu Buba...